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Modelling climate change impacts for coastal sites in West Africa With this invitation to tender, the Common Wadden Sea Secretariat (CWSS) of the Trilateral Wadden Sea Cooperation (TWSC) is seeking a qualified consultant/team of consultants to assist in the development of Climate Change Impact Models for coastal wetlands in West Africa. The development of these models is part of a larger project titled "Climate Resilience for Critical Sites for Migratory Birds and People along the East Atlantic Flyway (CREAF)". The consultant / consortium of consultants is expected to have proven experience in climate change impact modelling, both from a theoretical as well as practical perspective. 1) Background The East Atlantic Flyway is a vast area that covers all sites used by millions of migratory waterbirds throughout their annual life cycle. It connects breeding areas in the Arctic and Europe with staging and non-breeding sites along the western coast of Europe and Africa all the way to South Africa. Moreover, it is an essential flyway for many intra-African migratory species breeding in Africa as well as for resident birds. Along the flyway there is often conflict between the needs of birds and the needs of people, who both benefit from the ecosystem services provided by coastal wetlands. Climate change (in form of temperature increases, sea level rise, extreme weather events) will further accentuate this conflict in the absence of effective mechanisms that incorporate biodiversity, ecosystem services and people into climate adaptation responses at the landscape level. Lasting co-existence between people and biodiversity requires effective, large scale and coordinated planning and management. CREAF is a large-scale, multi-partner flyway project, working with local communities, site managers, researchers, and policymakers from 11 countries along the African Atlantic Coastline. The aim is to improve the resilience of the East Atlantic Flyway to climate change through targeted actions for local wetlands. This includes finding sustainable solutions for climate adaptation at sites of international importance for migratory birds that incorporate the needs of biodiversity and people. Climate impact models are a powerful tool to predict and subsequently manage the effects of climate change on coastal wetlands and biodiversity, as well as local communities and their livelihoods. By integrating data from hydrodynamic, atmospheric, ecological, and socio-economic systems, these models help policymakers and managers to make informed decisions about risk management, climate adaptation and long-term planning for nature conservation and rural development. Global models may not accurately reflect the impact at the site level as they lack information on specific local conditions. This leads to inaccurate predictions and prevents effective management of climate change impacts on a smaller scale. Their performance can be improved by informing the model with local data. Within this project, climate change impact models shall be developed for 2 important sites for migratory waterbirds in Mauritania and Guinea-Bissau, with the possibility to add a third site in Senegal. The focus will be to model potential climate change impacts on biodiversity and local livelihoods and share the knowledge with manager and policy makers.

Modelling climate change impacts for coastal sites in West Africa

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